It has mostly been a one-way street for markets that have moved up sharply since July. The front-line indices - the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 - have gained 6.7 per cent and 7.3 per cent, respectively, in the past three months. The rally in mid- and small-caps has been sharper, with both indices surging 14 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively, during this period. This sharp run has made analysts at Jefferies cautious.
'This resilience should be viewed as reflecting the strength of the structural story.'
It has been a slow 2022 thus far for the primary markets. In the last 8 months, only 16 companies have raised Rs 40,311 crore via the initial public offer (IPO) route, data from PRIME Database suggests. In comparison, 63 companies had raised a cumulative Rs 1.18 trillion via the IPO route in 2021. A large part of the funds raised in 2022 were on account of the two IPOs - Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) and logistics firm Delhivery - that raised a total of over Rs 26,000 crore between themselves.
India is likely to be the fastest-growing Asian economy in 2022-23, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley. They expect India's gross domestic product growth to average 7 per cent during this period - the strongest among the largest economies - and contributing 28 per cent and 22 per cent to Asian and global growth, respectively. The Indian economy, they said, is set for its best run in over a decade as pent-up demand is unleashed.
'As we expect the economy to continue to grow above the trend line, we expect capex decisions to be taken next year when there is more certainty about the cost of funding and the economy.'
Indian equity markets should be able to withstand inflation up to 8 per cent, said analysts at Credit Suisse Wealth Management in a recent note. Should the rate of inflation move higher than this, the valuation of Indian equities could deteriorate further, they cautioned. The fall from the peak levels has seen Nifty's 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.6 dip toward its 10-year and 5-year (pre-COVID) average of 16.9, which suggests that valuation froth of Indian equities has settled, said the Credit Suisse analysts.
'I would not suggest buying these stocks in the dip, as the upside in profit is dented without a safety net for a rainy day.'
'Recent underperformance notwithstanding, equities should constitute a major part of investors' financial portfolio.'
BofA Securities has revised its year-end Nifty target from its earlier projection of 16,000 to 14,500 now - down over 6 per cent from the current levels. Fast tightening monetary conditions, slowing growth/fears of US recession and the likely Nifty EPS (earnings per share) cuts, BofA Securities said, are the key headwinds for the markets in the near-term. However, clarity on macro and monetary policy outlook in the US/India, it said, is the silver lining that could see markets bottom out by August/September 2022.
'There will be a series of rate hikes, but the pace and quantum will depend on how the economy in the US and the rest of the world behave.'
After a sharp correction over the last few months, analysts seem to be turning cautiously optimistic on the information technology (IT) sector and suggest there could be trading opportunities in select counters despite revenue and growth concerns that still plague the sector. "IT stocks valuations have corrected 17 per cent-49 per cent and stock prices have corrected 9 - 42 per cent since mid-December 2021. Nifty IT index valuation has corrected by 27 per cent and price by 21 per cent. "About two quarters ago, we made a case that valuation drivers have peaked.
It has been a choppy calendar year 2022 (CY22) for global financial markets amid the spectre of rising inflation that led most central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve (US Fed), to tighten their monetary policy. Most equity indices across the globe have seen a sharp fall from their respective peak levels in this backdrop. FTSE India, for instance, has corrected 16 per cent from its October peak.
JP Morgan has downgraded the Indian information technology sector to 'underweight' as it believes the heydays of the sector are over. Rising margin headwinds in the near-term and the revenue headwinds in the medium-term from a potential macro slowdown, Ankur Rudra and Bhavik Mehta of JP Morgan said in the report, will mean that the sector's earnings upgrade cycle is behind. "We see peak revenue growth behind us and earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) margins trending down from inflation, mean revision.
The sharp correction in equity markets has taken a toll on mid-and-small cap stocks that have underperformed their large-cap peers. Thus far in calendar year 2022 (CY22), the mid-and-small cap indexes on the BSE have slipped over 8 per cent and 7 per cent respectively, as compared to a fall of around 6 per cent in the S&P BSE Sensex. While investors dumped mid-and small-cap stocks as the markets remained choppy over the past few weeks, analysts still expect these two segments to see good investor interest from a medium-to-long term perspective.
'The selling in India may emerge as soon as the RBI reverses its interest rate stance.'
'Thankfully, most investors in India have now seen through this false narrative and are once again deploying their hard-earned money.
'The recent correction in indices has made the markets cheaper to invest for the long term.'
Consumption of gold is the highest among middle-income households - those with annual income between Rs 2 lakh and Rs 10 lakh - who account for an average of 56 per cent of gold sales over the last five years, according to a nationwide survey conducted by India Gold Policy Centre (IGPC) at the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad (IIM-A). "Per capita consumption is highest among the rich, but total volume still rests with the middle-income group. "With increasing income, there is an increasing propensity to consume gold, although the share of gold in the portfolio does not increase with the same proportion of income," the survey report says.
Adani Green Energy entered the list of top-10 most valued companies in terms of market capitalisation (m-cap) in the country on Monday after its stock price zoomed 16.3 per cent to hit a new high of Rs 2,701.6 on the BSE. Adani Green Energy's m-cap now stands at Rs 4.22 trillion, surpassing Bharti Airtel, which has an m-cap of Rs 4.16 trillion. With today's rally, the stock has zoomed about 25 per cent in the last two trading days after UAE's International Holding Company (IHC) agreed to invest Rs 3,850 crore in Adani Green Energy through preferential issue.
Fundraising activity in the upcoming financial year 2022-23 may even surpass FY22 when 52 Indian companies raised a record Rs 1.11 trillion via initial public offerings (IPOs). According to a note by PRIME Database, 54 companies (including LIC) plan to raise Rs 1.4 trillion and currently hold the Securities and Exchange Board of India's (Sebi's) approval. Another 43 companies, the note said, are looking to raise about Rs 81,000 crore but waiting for Sebi nod.
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